From Survival to Learning: The Evolution of Early Childhood Investment Over the Development Cycle

with Faith Fatchen, Uditi Karna, Faisal Kattan, and John List

Work in Progress

This paper examines the evolution of early childhood development (ECD) investments as economies grow. We develop an economic model emphasizing the interplay between survival and learning, which shows a shift from health-focused to education-focused investments as incomes increase and survival rates improve. The model yields testable predictions about investment sequencing, non-linear spending patterns, and threshold effects. Empirical analysis of global ECD data support several of the model’s predictions: pre-primary education spending rises sharply with income and healthcare quality; countries prioritize survival before education in investment sequences; and health interventions yield stronger impacts in low-income settings, while education interventions show greater returns in higher-income contexts. While data limitations constrain comprehensive testing of the model’s mechanisms, our findings underscore the need for tailored investment strategies—prioritizing survival-focused interventions where basic health needs are unmet and scaling up early education once foundational health thresholds are met—over one-size-fits-all ECD policies.